Iran’s Desperate Gamble: Hormuz Strait Blockade Risk Surging Exponentially
The countdown to a potential global oil shock has begun. Hormuz closure probability rising fast as Iran runs out of options.
As the world watches the rising flames of conflict between Israel and Iran, a far more dangerous scenario is quietly taking shape — one that could ignite a true global energy shock:
The Strait of Hormuz may face an exponentially rising risk of blockade.
Let’s break down why this is not just theoretical anymore — but rapidly evolving into Iran's last, desperate geopolitical card.
Iran Has Entered “No Retreat” Mode
The Iranian leadership, cornered both externally and internally, is no longer operating under its familiar playbook of measured retaliation. Instead, they are now deep into a "nothing to lose" posture.
The trigger? Israel’s unprecedented Operation Rising Lion:
Over 200 Israeli airstrikes conducted in June 2025
Precision strikes on:
Isfahan nuclear facilities
Natanz enrichment bases
IRGC command centers
Revolutionary court data hubs
Israel has decapitated key parts of Iran’s strategic command — with at least 6 high-ranking military and nuclear officials killed in the initial phase.
From Proxy War to Direct Engagement: Iran’s Military Evolution
In its True Promise III operation, Iran unleashed over 150 ballistic missiles and 100+ kamikaze drones targeting Israeli cities. While Israel's Iron Dome and David's Sling intercepted ~80%, significant casualties and infrastructure damage still occurred.
🚨 Internal Collapse: The Quiet Crisis Within Iran
While missiles fly, Iran's internal structure is unraveling at alarming speed:
Mass Exodus: Highways clogged for 80+ km as elites and middle-class families flee Tehran.
Severe Shortages: Fuel, food, bottled water, and medical supplies vanishing from shelves.
Economic Breakdown:
CPI inflation: 43% YoY
Unemployment: >20% (real estimate)
Currency collapse: IRR/USD trading below 650,000:1
Social Unrest:
Nationwide trucker, oil worker, and nurse strikes
Student protests erupting across 30+ universities
Regime escalates mass executions via Revolutionary Courts
🩸 Factional Divide: Last Power Struggle
FactionCurrent StanceIRGC HawksFull retaliation, possible Hormuz blockadePolitical ModeratesLimited conflict, seek diplomatic exitReligious ExtremistsApocalyptic "martyrdom" escalation